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US Debt
Greek Debt Crisis
Bank Balance Sheets
World Energy Consumption
Arab Spring
Greek Austerity Plan
Derivative Markets
US Debt
US Federal Spending - Fiscal Year 2010- The United States currently has a $14.3 trillion debt ceiling (as of july 2011)
- Under President Bush, the government ran deficits of $2 trillion for the entire eight years
- The US trade deficit with China stood at $268 billion in 2008
- In 2009, foreign debt holdings were $3,000bn or about 28% of total national debt. In 2001, these numbers were $1,051 bn or 17% of total holding
- How big is 14 trillion dollars? 14 trillion $1 bills, laid end to end, side to side, would pave every interstate, highway, and country road in America - twice
- In November 2010 alone, the federal deficit totaled $150 billion.
- The U.S. government's debt ceiling has been raised six times since the beginning of 2006 (as of 2010)
- As of March 2009, the biggest foreign holders of US debt are China ($727 bn), Japan ($629 bn), UK ($157 bn), Brazil ($129bn) and Russia ($116bn)
- The U.S. national debt on January 1st, 1791 was just $75 million dollars. In 2008 the U.S. national debt rises by that amount about once an hour
- You could spend $10 million a day and it would still take you 273 years to spend $1 trillion
- When Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, the U.S. national debt was only about 1 trillion dollars
- Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities, total $4trillion (June 2010)
- The national debt and the debt ceiling by presidency (as of mid 2011)
- Each American citizen represents about $45,000 in the national debt (as of Jan 2011)
Greek Debt Crisis
- The five U.S. banks — JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) — had net exposure of $45 billion to the debt of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, according to disclosures the companies made at the end of the third quarter 2011.
- Fortis, Dexia and SocGen seem to have the highest exposure Greek debt relative to their tNAV, with 64%, 35% and 14%, respectively. (as of april 2010)
- In total, the notional ECB exposure to Greece amounts to around €50bn + €144bn = €194bn. Against this notional exposure, the ECB has lent/invested €40bn + €91bn = €131bn or 68% of its notional exposure (as of Febuary 2011)
- According to BIS, European banks's total exposure to Ireland (both public and private sector exposure) was €450bn at the end of Q3 2010, driven by British banks (€165bn), German banks (€150bn) and French banks (€57bn).
- The 2009 trade deficits for Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal were estimated to be $69.5 billion, $34.4B and $18.6B, respectively
- The BIS suggests that UK banks have just £25bn of exposure to Greece and Portugal, or 0.5% of funded assets. Spain is reportedly bigger at around £75bn, or 2% of funded assets. In total, this implies exposure across the three regions of around £100bn. (as of Q3 2010)
- Gross exposures to sovereign bonds (end 2010)
- The total exposure of the ECB to Ireland consists of around €20bn of bond purchases and €83bn of repos with domestic Irish banks (as of febuary 2011)
- The central Bank of Greece held directly €7bn of Greek government bonds as of the end of February 2011.
- Greek social security and other public entities hold around €30bn notional of Greek government bonds. They have already applied a loss of 30% in these holdings. (as of Febuary 2011)
- On 13 June 2011, Standard and Poors lowered the Greek sovereign debt to a CCC rating, the lowest in the world
- Over 2010, the cumulative loss of Greek banks deposit accounts has totalled €21bn - a staggering 7.5% decline compared with April 2009. On the asset side of the balance sheet, there has been almost no growth in loans to the private sector; but Greek banks have been aggressively hoovering up Greek government debt (their holdings hit €44bn in April from €32bn six months earlier)
- Greek banks had borrowed €91bn from the ECB as of the end of February 2011 with collateral of €144bn. This collateral consist of $48bn of Greek government bonds, €55bn of government-guaranteed bonds issued by Greek banks, €8bn of zero-coupon bonds which the Greek government had lent to Greek banks in 2008. The remaining €33bn is likely to be Greek ABS/covered bond collateral.
- At the end of March 2011, French financial firms had $672 billion in public and private debt in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, according to Basel, Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements
- Credit Agricole spent about 2.2 billion euros in 2006 to amass a controlling stake in Emporiki Bank of Greece SA and then increased its holding over time
Bank Balance Sheets
- Gross exposures to Greek government bonds (as of end 2010)
- France provided about 20 billion euros to bolster capital levels at its largest banks after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s September 2008 bankruptcy. President Nicolas Sarkozy also set up a 320 billion-euro fund to guarantee bank debt
- Total bank assets as % of nominal GDP, End 2010
- The four largest French banks have 5.9 trillion euros in total assets, including loans and bond holdings, or about three times France’s GDP (as of mid 2011)
- Five banks — JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) — write 97 percent of all credit-default swaps in the U.S., according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (as of 2011)
- According to the Wall Street Journal, Dexia has total assets, including derivatives of $689.5 billion and a leverage ratio of 74.5. By comparison, in mid 2008, prior to its collapse, Lehman Brothers reported a leverage ratio of 31 (as of Sept 2011)
- In July 2007, with a market capitalization of US$254 billion, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) became the largest bank in the world by market capitalization
- At the end of 2010, France’s three largest banks had at least 500 billion euros of short-term and interbank funding rolling over within three months or less, according to a Barclays Capital note dated Sept 7, 2011
- The Top Five U.S. Bank’s total assets of $8.29 trillion represent a staggering 62.3% of total U.S. banking industry assets (as of June 30, 2009)
- BNP Paribas total assets rose 34 percent to 2.24 trillion euros in the three years through June 2010. Total assets were at 1.93 trillion euros in June, about the same size as France’s GDP
- The five U.S. banks — JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) — had net exposure of $45 billion to the debt of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, according to disclosures the companies made at the end of the third quarter 2011.
- RBS, at the end of June 2008 had a balance sheet of just under two trillion pounds. For reference, UK GDP was around £1,500 bn.
- Percentage of Total Credit Exposure to Risk Based Capital, Top 5 Commercial Banks by Derivative Holdings, 2007 Q4 to 2010 Q1
- The total assets of Dexia exceed Belgium’s gross domestic product of $469 billion by $221 billion. By comparison, the U.S. banking industry has total assets of $13.6 trillion dollars, slightly below the total GDP of the United States (as of Q3, 2011)
- Top five US banks by assets, 2Q 2009
World Energy Consumption
- China oil demand (2007)
- Just before the beginning of the 21st century, oil average $16 a barrel. By July 2008, less than 10 years later, oil hit a high of $146 a barrel - a stunning rise of more than 800%
- In 2008, demand grew in countries subsidizing oil by nearly 1 million barrels per day, despite high prices
- The world crude oil production grew from 21 million barrels per day in 1960 to 56 mbd in 1973, a growth of 166%
- Per capita total energy consumption (as of 2001)
- US energy usage in 2007
- World energy consumption by region (as of 2004)
- In 1973, oil accounted for 46 percent of the world's total energy consumption; by 2005, its share had declined to 35 percent
- During the Oil Crisis of the 1970s, oil spiked at a nominal peak of $38. In today's prices (adjusted for inflation), that is $106, a figure that we blew past in early 2008
- The G-20 accounts for over 80 percent of the world's energy use (2008)
- In 1999, the total supply of primary energy in the world was 9,744.48 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent). According to estimates of 1999, it is projected to be 11,500 MTOE in 2010 and 13,700 MTOE in 2020
- Developed industrialized countries consume around 43 millions oil barrels daily on an average while developing countries consume 22 million (2008)
- Angola exported roughly 465,000 barrels of oil per day to China in the first six months of 2007
- The Middle East holds 62 percent of the world's proven oil reserves (2008)
- As of 2005, oil remains well ahead of other energy sources (35%), coal meets 25 percent of the world's energy needs, natural gas is next (20%), and nuclear power meets 6 percent of the planet's energy needs
Arab Spring
- Number of years in power as of July 2011 : </br> Tunisia : Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, 23 years in power - Egypt : Hosni Mubarak, 30 years - Bahrain : King Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa, 12 years and counting (His family has ruled for 200 years) - Yemen : Ali Abdullah Saleh, 33 years - Libya : Muammar Gaddaffi, 42 years in power - Syria : Bashar Assad, 11 years and counting (His father, Hafez, ruled the country for 29 years)
- Cost of arab spring
- Number of people killed in protests during arab spring (as of July 2011) - Tunisia: nearly 300 killed, 700 injured - Egypt: nearly 900 killed, 6,500 injured - Yemen: at least 320 killed - Syria: protests continue, at least 1,486 civilians killed since March 2011 and 10,000 syrian refugees in turkey by July 2011 - Bahrain: at least 30 killed in protests up to June 2011
- The popular protests in 2011 in North Africa and the Middle East - known as the Arab Spring - have cost the region more than $50bn. The report, by consultancy group Geopolicity, says Egypt, Syria and Libya paid the highest financial price.
- During the arab spring in Yemen and Libya, public expenditures have fallen alongside public revenues as government collapsed. There has been a 77% fall in revenues in Yemen and an 84% fall in Libya. In Saudi Arabia the impact on public revenues is positive, increasing by 25%. In UAE public revenues have risen by 31%
- Libya, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen have all been hit hard economically during the arab spring. Their costs to GDP amount to $20.56bn while costs to public finance total $35.28bn (as of oct 2011)
Greek Austerity Plan
- €850m is what public investment will be reduced by in 2011. (as of 29 June 2011)
- €50bn will be raised from privatising state assets, such as ports, water and telecom utilities. Mining rights and state land will be sold. (as of 29 June 2011)
- 23% is the VAT rate for restaurants (from 13%). Levies on luxuries like yachts will apply. (as of 29 June 2011)
- 1976 schools will be closed, or merged with others. (as of 29 June 2011)
- 1 in 10 civil servants retiring this year will be replaced. (as of 29 June 2011)
- 65 not 60 will be the new retirement age and 40 years of contribution are required to qualify for a full pension. (as of 29 June 2011)
- €200m of defence spending will be cut in 2012 and €333m each year from 2013 to 2015. (as of 29 June 2011)
- €14,3bn in public spending will be slashed by the Greek government as part of greek austerity measures (as of 29 June 2011)
- €770m will be cut from the public-sector wage bill this year and €1,4bn between 2012 and 2015. (as of 29 June 2011)
- €14,1bn is what it hopes to raise from tax hikes over five years. (as of 29 June 2011)
- 30% is the expected reduction in the wages of employees of state-owned enterprises. A cap on wages and bonuses will be introduced. (as of 29 June 2011)
Derivative Markets
- Based on surveys conducted by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the global derivative market as at June 2009 totalled $605trillion in notional amount (up from less than $10trillion 20 years ago). The outstanding amount compares to global gross domestic product of around $60bn
- The world stock and bond markets are valued at about USD 100 trillion (as of December 2007)
- According to Federal Reserve Reports, the five largest US derivative dealers generated revenues of $52.8bn from trading derivatives and cash securities in the first nine months of 2009
- Wall Street's "over-the-counter" financial derivatives market is currently estimated to a size of $596 trillion. By comparison the entire financial wealth of planet Earth is estimated at $167 trillion `
- Notional amount of derivative contracts - Top 25 commercial banks and trust companies in derivatives - March 31, 2010 (in $ Millions)
- Percentage to derivatives total notional by type - U.S commercial banks - Q1 2010
- The big banks alone own about USD 140 trillion in derivatives (as of December 2007)
- The BIS reported that the notional amount of outstanding credit derivatives rose to $4.5 trillion in 2007, up from just $0.7 trillion in their last survey in 2001
- The Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives stood in notional or face value at USD 596 trillion and included: - Interest Rate Derivatives at about USD 393+ trillion; -Credit Default Swaps at about USD 58+ trillion; - Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 56+ trillion; - Commodity Derivatives at about USD 9 trillion; - Equity Linked Derivatives at about USD 8.5 trillion; - Unallocated Derivatives at about USD 71+ trillion (as of December 2007)
- A quadrillion is a big number: 1,000 times a trillion. Yet according to one of the world's leading derivatives experts, Paul Wilmott, $1.2 quadrillion is the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market. To put that in perspective, the world's annual gross domestic product is between $50 trillion and $60 trillion (as of December 2007)
- Notional amount of derivative contracts held for trading - Top 5 commercial banks and trust companies in derivatives - March 31, 2010 (in $ Millions)
- The outstandings in the global derivatives market at its peak in June 2008 ($760trillion) equals everything produced on earth during the previous 20 years.
- The bundling of consumer loans and home mortgages into packages of securities - a process known as securitization - was the biggest U.S. export business of the 21st century. More than $27 trillion of these securities have been sold since 2001, according to the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association, an industry-trade group. That's almost twice 2007 U.S. gross domestic product of $13.8 trillion (as of 2007)
- When Lehman Brothers defaulted the firm had around $600bn in debt. This would have been the maximum loss to creditors in the case of default. (September 2008)
- Credit derivatives composition by product type - U.S commercial banks - Q1 2010
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